Having done a polygon map search of the entire Alta Vista South’s 4 subdivisions of homes, dating back to September 1, 2010… my search yields the following results:
The following homes are Active:
1035 Snow Ln, 901 Doral Ct, 938 Pebble Beach Pl, 324 Atchley Ln, 1012 Underhill Dr, 1156 E Little Dr, 428 N Little Dr, 569 Hunt Cir, 518 Newman Cir, 1111 Melia Pl
The following homes are in Escrow:
511 Lowe Dr, 1112 Maertzweiler Dr, 914 Torrey Pines Pl, 1030 Underhill Dr
The following homes have Sold:
1021 Kemp Dr, 1015 Kemp Dr, 400 Quail Run Ln, 541 N Lowe Dr, 549 Dickinson Cir, 512 Dickinson Cir (96.34% LP/SP)
The following is the Price Per Square Foot of each of these categories
Actives: $243.39
In Escrows: $224.80
Solds: $226.74
It is interesting to note, that there is a disparity between the price per square foot of those homes that are in escrow and sold ($224 and $226 respectively) and the actives ($243). This is pretty common. This means that the homes that sell are those that are competitively priced relative to today’s market for newer construction homes in Placentia. Common sense dictates that homes that are priced lower will generally sell and those home owners holding out for more are not selling until they are willing to join the $224 to $225 per square foot group. Now, this is a GENERAL observation, so there are cases where a buyer walks in with cash or a huge downpayment and is willing to pay more than the market is currently bearing, thus eliminating the need for the home appraising…but since that event is not a common occurrence, it is safe to say that the home owners who have their homes priced with those that are selling or have sold, will be the ones to sell next.
Price Per Square Foot This Time in 2009
The price per square foot from 9/1/2009 to 12/31/2009 for 5 properties that closed in that time span in Alta Vista South was:
$250.54 with home owners getting 99.44% of their List Price (LP/SP Ratio) Compare that ratio with today’s ratio for properties sold b/n 9/1/2010 and 12/11/2010: 96.34%
Price Per Square Foot This Time in 2008
$264.31 with home owners getting 89.56% of their List Price. 2008 was one of the WORST years in the history of real estate in the United States. Not surprising that owners had to bend over backwards to get people to buy their place back in ’08.
Price Per Square Foot in 2007
$305.69 with home owners getting 94.08% of their List Price.
In 2006….$312.55….In 2005 it was (gulp!) $362.96 with homeowners getting 99.1% of their LP. In 2004, it was right around $290….so it looks like 2005 was THE YEAR to sell for Alta Vista South Homes. What these stats tell us is that since 2005, the average price for a home in the Alta Vista South community has dropped from $362.96 per square foot to $226.74 per square foot. The reason I believe we are going to continue to see a downward trend for quite some time is due to a couple of HUGE factors —
1) Get this……EIGHT out of TEN of the current active listings in Alta Vista South are SHORT SALES….EIGHT out of TEN….I’m not a math genius but I believe that’s 80%. So, guess what? These homes have already been priced well below what seems to be the current market…….and some of them will STILL have trouble selling so they’ll have to reduce the already reduced price even more…with 8 out of the 10 homes for sale in AV South being in default/short sale situation, I don’t think any serious person would predict we’ll see a recovery any time soon.
2) The ecomonic reports have indicated unemployment to be holding steady in California at 12.3% to 12.5% depending on who you read. That is THIRD worst in the entire country. Orange County is a little better off than the state as a whole, but still, double digit unemployment figures are never good. There’s a good reason why 8 out of the 10 homes for sale in your neighborhood are short sales.
Doom and Gloom? Sounds like it from what I’m writing…but the good news is that we know what to expect more these days. Sellers aren’t as unrealistic about getting $1 Million for their home, and buyers and sellers are more on the same page than they’ve ever been. It’s a healthy market when everyone understands what is going on. My prediction is that we’ll see home values continue to slide for quite some time, until the job situation improves in Orange County or loan modifications become easier to obtain. I received a call from one Alta Vista South resident about a year or so ago, extremely angry that I had sold a home at a certain price and was responsible for bringing down the values of Alta Vista South homes. Ladies and Gentlemen…the REALTORS are NOT to blame. They price a home, after careful study and research on what is a reasonable price for the current market. If the home sits on the market for several weeks, it is overpriced…no one is making a reasonable offer. When the price is reduced, buyers finally start entering the game and see the home as an option. Offers happen, some are too low, some aren’t, and the home eventually sells – OR – the homeowner decides that they won’t sell below a certain price and they take the home off the market. Which is OK, since every homeowner has their own motivation for why they are selling in the first place. And, of course, no one wants to seem desperate. (The “D” word). I’ve been telling people for years now in Alta Vista South, if you can hold onto your home for like 5 years, get someone who won’t destroy your home to rent the place at a good monthly rate (and who won’t leave, leaving YOU with two or more mortgages to pay), then maybe it’s a good idea to rent the place out. If you really really WANT to move or NEED to move, then, with the government’s already rock bottom suppressed interest rates, and a declining market, it is definitely, for sure, 100% in your best interest to sell for whatever the market is willing to bear, and move on.
